By Johnathan Miller
Earlier in the year, the top major forecasts painted different pictures. FiveThirtyEight’s election model, released in mid-August, showed Biden with a 71% chance.
The Economist, released in June showed Biden with around an 80% chance. The JHK forecast, by a student in Texas, released his forecast in March with a 60% chance for Biden. These may clash, but in the end they converge to give a similar range of chances that Biden will win.
The 2020 presidential election has been increasingly stable over the past few months with former Vice President and Democratic nominee Joe Biden holding between an 7-8 point advantage over President Donald Trump.
Since the first debate, which The Equinox provided live coverage for, Biden has since gained over Trump in the national average in ways that have not happened over the course of this election season.
In the FiveThirtyEight national polling average, where all the polls get collected and properly weighted, Biden was leading by 7.1 percentage on the day of the first debate (Sept. 29).
Biden has gained in the averages and is now leading by 10 percentage points, the first time this year where Biden has held a double-digit lead nationally.
There was some sense that things would revert back to what they were after the “debate bounce” faded, but now it has been two weeks since the debate, and Biden’s polling numbers have been holding steady.
It’s clear to see that as time between now and Election Day decreases, Biden’s chances will increase as models get more confident. There is still some uncertainty — like the increase of mail-in ballots and the passage of time. However, it’s clear that Biden is in a much clearer and stronger position that Clinton was on Election Day 2016.